Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Now we come to the interesting part of the proceedings.   I begin with an apology for the extent to which this will be incomplete.   As I mentioned in Part One, there is little or no literature available on data analysis from these devices.   I hope this basic outline will evolve into a far more extensive guide in future.

As I am most familiar with the Rika system I will be Rika specific in this section.

Repetition Mode

This is better than television.   Not only can you watch the colored lines squiggle across the target, you can replay those golden moments of glory when you punch right through the x-ring.

When you start looking closely at patterns within the trace some trends may become apparent.   A low left to high right diagonal oscillation, (for a right handed pistol shooter), shows some weakness in wrist lock or poor contact between the hand and the grip.   Try to recognize any patterns of wobble that may be caused by body sway, incorrect body alignment, (a tendency to drift to one side), or up and down movement, (which may be caused by trying to swivel at the hip to hold the correct height on the target).

I have a personal favorite shot I like to call “the rubber band”.   It starts with a nice central hold.   At about a tenth of a second before release the trace straightlines out to the 8 or 7 ring, drops the yellow dot way out there and straightlines back to the center of the target in follow through.   Quite often this happens so fast the shooter never sees it happen.   Mostly they are pulled shots to seven or eight o’clock, or heeled shots to one or two o’clock, (again I’m speaking for right handers). But it’s a dead giveaway that it was a “now !”, or consciously fired shot.

Sometimes if you watch carefully during the breaking of the shot you will see a noticeable kick of the trace as the shot is released.   This is due to excessive after travel, especially on pistols with 500 grams or more in trigger weight.   If the trigger finger does not squeeze rearwards in a perfectly straight line it will kick the muzzle as the trigger pulls through the sear release and hits against the stop.

That purple line of follow through is most instructive.   We all are certain that our follow through is exemplary.   But the trace does not lie.   Many of us take a little nervous jump just after the shot breaks.   Seeing this helps us realize that we must maintain control of our hold through and after the shot.

In the case of the Rika, the final static image showing the various stages of trace and fall of shot also includes small green crosses showing the impact points of the other shots in the series.

In general after studying the trace for a while it is easy to recognize what a good tight hold looks like.   This translates to a good sight formation hold from a shooter’s perspective.   This kind of reinforcement will help the shooter recognize the importance of this.   It can also prove that not all tens are good shots.   If the trace wavered all over the black and just happened to break as it raced past the center of the target there is reason for some rueful reflection and honest appraisal.

Average Placement and Holding for Series

This function gives a center of group for the hold and actual hits.   For those with a statistical bent it will give standard deviation and maximum distance between shots in millimeters for the hits, and similar figures for the area of hold.

Ideally the figures for the hits should not be a great deal higher than those for the hold.   The greater the difference, the greater the effect of trigger release on the overall group size.

Centers of hit and hold are also displayed.   This can be very interesting as it often shows a tendency for the shot to be pushed or pulled away from the center of the hold as it breaks.

Single Shot Analysis

This function takes each shot on its own and gives the average hold, (shown as a rectangular frame), in relation to the center of hits and hold in the series, as above.   The rectangular frame will be in proportion to the size and shape of hold before the shot broke.

Possible Score by Time Transference

This really is the most telling set of figures to my way of thinking.   It consists of a bar graph giving potential scores for every tenth of a second starting one second before shot release and ending one second after.   These figures are calculated either by ten shot series or the entire match.   The highest potential score is shown as a green bar.

A shooter with good trigger control will display a flat or almost level pattern in the center of the graph.   Poor trigger control will inevitably show a definite dip, probably starting two or three tenths before the shot broke, before raising again for a tenth or two into follow through.

If the graph rapidly declines from a tenth of a second after shot release it’s apparent there IS no follow through.

There is no point in here debating whether the shooter should be firing consciously, unconsciously or trusting in some higher being.   The function of this program is to demonstrate just how effective the shot release procedure really is.   If the results are not satisfactory it is time to rethink your approach.

Time Charts

These graphs show individual shots on a time line from go to whoa.   The main graph uses the same color scheme for the trace as the first graphic section above. The difference is, the y-value shown on the graph is distance from the center of the target.   It is therefore easy to see at which points during the taking of the shot the hold is within an acceptable area.

I have found from studying my graphs that between three and six seconds from settling in the aiming area my hold is at its most stable.   The longer I hold after this the more it becomes a lottery.   Again it provides reinforcement for the “d’oh” factor, that which we really know but need to be reminded.

The secondary graph in this section separates movement from center of the target to a red trace for side to side movement, and a blue trace for vertical movement. This will highlight a particular problem of excessive movement in either direction.

There is a third graph that is generated only when a trigger sensor is hooked up.   This shows the gradual, (or not-so-gradual, as the case may be), loading of the trigger weight on a parallel time line to these other two graphs.   This can be very instructive in showing up the “now” syndrome – where a shooter makes a definite decision to take the shot and pulls the trigger rapidly to complete it – thereby pulling the gun from the center of the target.   In this case a rapid curve on the trigger graph will correspond with a sharp downward curve on the “distance from target center” graph.

This sensor really only works well with triggers of air pistol weight or heavier.

Cant

Shown on a shot-by-shot basis, this graph will show the physical cant of the gun for the duration of the shot.   When initial fine calibration is completed by the shooter the unit takes the cant during those sighting shots and sets it as “zero”.   All angles shown from that point on are in relation to that setting.

Where it becomes instructive is when the angle changes as the match progresses.   It may be because of physical fatigue, it may be caused by mental fatigue, or it could be good old fashioned complacency.   Should the angle grow more than a degree or two there will certainly be a change in the point of impact in relation to apparent sight picture.

Series Overview

This function merely shows each series as a ten shot target.   Handy for seeing if the groups change as the match progresses, or if the groups expand as fatigue sets in.   It’s a neat graphic but really does no more than having paper targets to study.

Percentage Calculations

This set of figures will give some indication as to how tight your hold is just prior to the shot release.   Parameters for these results are set by the shooter depending on his holding expectations.   The length of time before the shot is normally set at around one second.   The amount of time the hold remained during this specified period in the 10 ring will be defined as a percentage.   The second parameter is also set by the shooter – he will choose a scoring ring (say the 8 ring) – and a second percentage will be given for the time the hold remained within that ring.

This data is then split into three possibilities.   The first is related to the actual target.   The second is calculated as if the shot itself were the center of the target. The third calculation is assuming the center of the hold was the center of the target.

Realistically I don’t believe any but the first is relevant.

Score/Hold Time

This graph shows actual score of each shot of a series or the whole match on the y axis, while the x axis shows the elapsed hold time for each shot.   Typically there will be a “sweet spot” where shots breaking within a certain time will show a cluster of higher scores.   Another common trend is to see the shots that linger out to the right side of the graph, those where the shooter has held too long, to string out and become far less consistent.   More solid evidence to convince unbelievers of the obvious.

A time study graph at the bottom of this page is also of more than passing interest.   It shows the overall time of the match and how shot strings were broken down within that time (again shots are shown against the y axis for value).   Did the shooter wait to fire an 8 before taking a break ?   How did he manage his overall time ?

This concludes my basic tour through the statistic functions of the Rika program.   As I have never had experience with the heart rate monitor I have not included this feature.

There really are many possibilities with a device such as this.   I’m certain others have conceived of this, but I have never seen it discussed before:

Suffering For Your Art

For those with a masochistic but practical bent, it is possible to turn up the difficulty level to condition the shooter to having to perform at a higher level of technical excellence to achieve an “acceptable” score on the Rika.   With a keystroke you can have your target scored as if it were at 11, 12, 13 or however many meters away you like, depending on how much pain you wish to self-inflict.

It could also be used for deflating overblown egos, but I’m not here to put evil thoughts in scheming minds.

To change the distance within the Rika program you enter Administration and select Shooter and Target Database.   The Targets folder will then allow you to select the target, (eg 10m Air Pistol), and Edit.   At the bottom of the specifications it is possible to specify any distance, and to make the degree of difficulty hard enough to punish undisciplined shooting.    I set it at 12 meters.

This is akin to the hill training approach that runners use.   Of course the score will no longer have direct relevance to “real” air pistol, but this is a positive rather than a negative.   No longer will your practice matches be always better than your competition scores.   Nothing changes in sight picture, (as it would if you were to physically set a 10 meter target at 12 meters).

Conversely for new shooters it’s possible to reduce the distance to help build a little confidence in the first few shooting sessions.   There really are many possibilities with this feature.